PREDICTION SCOREBOARD

PREDICTION SCOREBOARD
Many board members here like to make predictions but you cannot track your predictions and improve your predictive power unless you keep honest score. I remember reading somewhere Alex said world will end 1997 or 2003? Can anyone find this prediction? A world ending is a pretty bold prediction, so that means if you are correct, you should be given a lot of credit, but if you are wrong that credit should be taken away -- so lets say it is 1,000,000 points Say I predict that world doesn't end. That is not such a bold prediction so if I am right I only get 1 pt. So this means: Alex ------- Predict world end 1997/2003: 1,000,000 pts : Did not come true -1000000 points KBazooka ------- Predict world does not end: 1 pt: came true + 1 pt. Lets create a scoreboard of predictions here, try to keep it honest and reasonable with regards to score. One good rule of thumb is perhaps -- how much money you think such a prediction is worth if it is true. A correct prediction of when the world will end I believe is at least a million times more valuable than a correct prediction that the world will not end on that day. Another restriction: the prediction should be specific -- the more murky or ambiguous a prediction is, obviously the more worthless it is. example: It will rain somewhere sometime in the near future -- this is basically worth zero It will rain in Brasil exactly 2 weeks from now -- this is worth more, but if it is during rainy season, it is not such a valuable prediciton either.

I do not know all of at0's posts but it seems like most of the predictions he makes are 'BLANK' predictions i.e. predictions that are so murky and ambiguous that they should be assigned a near-zero score no matter the outcome. AT0 SCORE: -------------------- Big financial disaster ahead: 0 Some horrible consequence related to oil is going to happen: 0 World will end soon: 0 (actually this should be -1000 because even if world ends tomorrow, it is still too long after when AT0 said it, that it should not qualify as 'soon') But making so many predictions like this will bring your average down. So even if AT0 makes some good predictions, it will still be a bad total score. Let's look at Alex's score: -------------------------------------- World ending 1990s? (can someone find this?): -1000000 War with China soon: ?? (it looks like Alex withdrew this prediction, now he is not sure when or if there will be war) Please find out all of Alex's predictions so we cna see if they are getting more or less accurate over time

Sounds good mate 8) This year I am hoping to do I-Ching in relation to the Melbourne Cup. Last year, I did the Caulfield Cup and, if I had of just studied it all a little bit more, I would have picked the winner. So, this year I'm hoping to learn from my experience from last year. I am hoping to get started on it soon - it's a bit difficult with horse races as there are over 20 horses in the final field. At present, the final field hasn't been done for the Melb Cup, however nominations have been done - there are over 100 horse nominated :shock: The Melbourne Cup is on the 6th November 2007. I'll let you know how I go :) Cheers!

I predict ATA will be BANNED within the first week of OCT 2007.

And I predict ATA will not be banned by that time.

I predict : Ata0 will be banned soon, he will spawn again with another nickname 'soon' is intended within six months from now.

When I was banned unfairly from this board I noticed this board take a nose dive in moral. I saw a person with a animated homosexual avatar and other pornography begin to increase. It's only since I have come back that this trend has reversed. I believe Jimmy is now becoming Christian again and that is why he is not on my back anymore. Also I have noticed more people believing in Christ here now which is very positive for this forum. Even alex is now wearing a crucifix necklace which even though he claims he is not christian, he is being influenced by the lord. Even people who are bible based but ricketed and hobbled in their beliefs such as Vehcklox are turning back more and more to a purely bible based belief set like mine, and I do say, out of everyone on this board, he is one of the nicest people I have met here. Only god knows the future, people can look at trends and try to predict what might happen in the future using the logic god gave them, ie I was banned once, probability of me being banned again is higher than someone who has not been banned before, but throwing coins or stones and using that as a base to predict the future is stupid.

You think your banning was unfair? You posted a damn picture of a dead baby covered in blood! I agree with you that pornography should not be posted and whoever does so should be banned also. But the image you posted was very disturbing and uncalled for. I don't care what kind of point you was trying to make. You could have made it without posting that.

is higher than someone who has not been banned before, but throwing coins or stones and using that as a base to predict the future is stupid. If it is stupid, then most people who throw coins/stones score will be low. (Maybe some will get lucky and get a good score even if coins/stones are random.) However your score as far as I can tell is not so good. Use whatever method you like to make predictions, and we will update your score. But if you want a good score, make your predictions as precise as possible. You said before housing prices will be 50%. Which housing prices and when? In fact, you can probably find housing prices that are 50% at almost any time in history, just by switching location. You say using astrology is abomination, but then you endorse bible code, which by your level-0 logic is certainly a deformation of the bible? I do not mind whatever method you use, but if you make claims of something's predictive power, I must ask for specific demonstration. Alex and Franco says something about the start of immortal age is 2012. What does that mean exactly? Everyone will be immortal starting from 2012? HERE IS MY CHALLENGE: every week there is a powerball drawing -- everyone who claims they have a good prediction method -- post their prediction of the numbers drawn. I have no prediction method right now, so I will just pick randomly. Here is my random pick for this week: 07 · 17 · 26 · 40 · 48 POWERBALL = 06 Powerball is 5 balls from 1-55 and one powerball 1-42 If you claim very accurate results, then we can easily see how good your method is. If you claim some kind of edge but not total accuracy, we can see over time if your results are more or less accurate than others. Use astrology, bible code, coins, dice, whatever -- it's up to you!

ATA wrote: When I was banned unfairly Ah, no.. You were banned as TwistinUnderSchizophrenia explained. You were banned because you DID WRONG. - Simple. and the sad thing is - your doing it again.

Stop lying, Vehcklox is NOT turning Christian. And, Alex is not being influenced by a cross, he's just as crazy as ever.

I predict ATA will be BANNED within the first week of OCT 2007. If you work to make him banned, that is an unfair bet I think because you have some control over the outcome, and the odds are in your favor. To make it fair, we need to figure out the odds. Who has the power to ban him? If we can get the moderator's opinon we can see the odds of ATA banning more clearly. My guess is maybe 3:2 in your favor that ATA is banned. so if you are correct, you get 2 pts, but if you are wrong you lose 3 pts. Of course we should get more accurate odds from moderators.

But not once did i say i want ATA banned, im not working to get him banned nor am i telling moderators to ban him - i predict he will get banned because of his latest actions...

But not once did i say i want ATA banned, im not working to get him banned nor am i telling moderators to ban him - i predict he will get banned because of his latest actions... Well, to be honest with you, ATA does not seem to be behaving much differently now than from before, so if the moderators tolerate that this long, I would only think that increased complaints from forum members would influence them to ban him. But yes, there do seem to be more complaints now than before, so you might be right that he will be banned in october. Anyone wish to try astrology or iching on this matter?

In another thread, Franco predicts WWIII: february 2008 (day from 1 to 15) This is pretty serious, but not as serious as end of the world, so Franco, if you are right you should win 200,000 points I suppose. Anyone disagree? ATA also predicts hyperinflation and war with china, but unlike Franco, he does not give dates, so again this is another example of a murky unusable prediction: 0 pts The powerball challenge is still open -- if you believe your prediction method is valid, i urge you to give your predictions!

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