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frank2008- 07-03-2008

What does it means "pronuunced"? How mauch proununced? And so now the only symptoms of AIDS is thymus reduced? please..

DrSchadenfreude- 07-03-2008

You're focusing on the wrong word, "pronounced". The key word is "atrophy", as opposed to what you posited "underdevelopment". And, that's not the only symptom listed - the girl was severely underweight and showed signs of having bore the illness for a while! I can't understand why a coroner would be biased against this woman enough to say these things when they weren't true - you think he was paid off by big Pharma or what?! The fact is that neither you nor I examined this girl (not that I would be much use...) and so we must trust the coroner as long as what he is presenting to us seems reasonable and I have to say, it does...

frank2008- 07-03-2008

they didn't do enough test. not even hiv test. Their diagnosis is unscientific

DrSchadenfreude- 07-03-2008

Hmmmm...perhaps. I don't know enough about forensic medicine to conclude that fully, but I take your point... However, my original point was that your unsupported, tangential assertion was offensive and I stand by that. I'm hardly convinced that HIV is harmless, but you've made a good case that it may be more controllable that I'd previously thought without the aid of drugs - if I ever contracted it, I'd be sure to look her and her book up again.

frank2008- 07-03-2008

And you have to answer why 4 members out of 5 are perfectly healthy in that family where all carry hiv virus, after more than 10 years from infection. Or now 90% people are immune from AIDS? And did you notice that time span you are suppose to survive after HIV infection is always been more or less the time that has passed since HIV discovery? In 1980 scientists say "you can survive 6 months" with HIV, in 1985 it was 3 years. In 1990 it was "maybe 10 years" In 2000 ita was 15 years. Now it's 20 years. And we are talking of people who din't take anti HIV drugs..for example cristin maggiore, who is healthy with hiv since when infected about 20 years ago. Do you see anything suspect in this?

DrSchadenfreude- 07-04-2008

I don't think anybody is talking about an average survival of 20 years with HIV are they?! And where on earth do you get data to suggest that 90% of people are immune to AIDS?

frank2008- 07-04-2008

I don't think anybody is talking about an average survival of 20 years with HIV are they?! And where on earth do you get data to suggest that 90% of people are immune to AIDS? Oh, yeah now scientists talk about 20 years. And YOU have talked about 90% immune, since you stated that "by chance" in Maggiore's family only 1 developed aids. If 80% in one family are immune to aids, it's like saying 90% of people are immune.

kamebazooka- 07-08-2008

Franco, you played a joke on DrS, but we know you don't believe HIV is harmless. Maybe this Maggiore has guts to inject herself with HIV-tainted blood but you do not. It's funny that you talk about probability here, because that is part of the solution to the ANTI-AIDS PIZZA. HINT: think about the probability AIDS test returns false positive. Then think about the probability of AIDS in general population.

kamebazooka- 07-13-2008

BUMP. Here is (one) solution to the problem: From http://instructional1.calstatela.edu/dweiss/Psy302/Confusion.htm What is the probability that a 20-30 year old German male who does not engage in risky sexual behavior is in fact infected with HIV if he gets a positive result on an AIDS test? Here is the background information in standard probability format. (1) The prevalence rate is 0.01%. (2) The sensitivity of the test is 99.8%. (3) The false positive rate for the test is 0.01%. Clearly, this is a tremendously accurate test procedure, identifying almost everyone who has the virus while hardly ever incorrectly identifying an HIV negative man as positive. So if the test says a man has the virus, what is the probability that he really does? By now you probably don’t trust your intuition, so I’ll let you “see” the answer by providing the natural frequencies. (1) Imagine 10000 men in the low-risk group taking the test. One of them is infected (the prevalence rate is 0.01%); he will almost certainly test positive (the sensitivity of the test is 99.8%). Of the remaining 9999 uninfected men taking the test, one will also test positive (the false positive rate for the test is 0.01%). Two men test positive; one actually has the virus. Therefore, if a man from the low-risk group tests positive, the probability that he has the virus is about 50%. So 1 out of every 2 people who test positive don't have AIDS. I "cure" them because they don't have it in the first place. If I make $40 on each pizza for non-AIDS people, and lose $20 on each pizza for AIDS positive people, I'm still ahead $20. Of course tests might be better these days. Your profit might be smaller.